Part I: Overall and age group alert system for Sweden by week

Comments for Part I:

-No threshold breaches occurred during weeks 14 and 15. Overall mortality continued to decrease during this period. A decrease in mortality was observed in all age groups.

Part II: Geographical alert system for mortality by Swedish “kommun” and week
(Please note that the geographical alert system is still in the testing phase and requires further testing. As such threshold breaches should be interpreted with caution and many could represent random events. For this reason an alert for a particular “kommun” is currently defined as a threshold breach for 2 or more consecutive weeks).

Figure 2: Map of threshold breaches by Swedish “kommun” (red sector indicates a threshold breach for the given week, while yellow sector represents close to threshold but not breached)

Table 1: Swedish “kommuner” with geographical alerts for 2 or more consecutive weeks during Year = 2005, Weeks = 14-15

"Landsting" "Kommun"name "Kommun" code Weeks during which alert(s) were observed

Kalmar

Högsby

821

13, 14

Comments for Part II:

Högsby “kommun” in Kalmar “Landsting” breached spatial temporal thresholds for 2 consecutive weeks during weeks 13 and 14 and therefore constitutes an alert according to our current definition of a geographical alert. The number of observed deaths and expected threshold is small (see Table 2) and as such we interpret this alert with caution. The appeared to be a decrease in the spatial mortality activity from week 14 to 15, which is correlates with the findings in Part I.

Table 2: Table of threshold breaches, observed # deaths and expected thresholds # deaths by Swedish “kommun” for Year = 2005, Weeks = 14-15 (Note only age groups with threshold breaches are shown in the table)

"Week" "Landsting"

"Kommun" name (code)

Age group

Observed # deaths

Expected threshold

14

Kalmar

Högsby (821)

65+

5

3.54

Total

5

4.94

Västra Götaland

Tibro (1472)

65+

7

4.88

Total

7

6.96

15

-

-

-

-

-

/Benn Sartorius