Part I: Overall and age group alert system for Sweden by week

Figure 1: Overall mortality in Sweden by week (includes same period from previous 2 years)

Comments for Part I:
-No threshold breaches occurred in any age groups during weeks 18 and 19. Observed number of deaths well below expected thresholds. Slight increase in overall mortality in week 18 but decreased again in week 19 (see Figure 1).

Part II: Geographical alert system for mortality by Swedish “kommun” and week
(Please note that the geographical alert system is still in the testing phase and requires further testing. As such threshold breaches should be interpreted with caution and many could represent random events. For this reason an alert for a particular “kommun” is currently defined as a threshold breach for 2 or more consecutive weeks).

Figure 2: Map of threshold breaches by Swedish “kommun” (red sector indicates a threshold breach for the given week, while yellow sector represents close to threshold but not breached)

Table 1: Swedish “kommuner” with geographical alerts for 2 or more consecutive weeks during Year =2005, Weeks = 18 - 19

"Landsting" "Kommun" name "Kommun" code Weeks during which alerts were observed
Kalmar

Högsby

821

18, 19

Comments for Part II:
Högsby “kommun” in Kalmar “Landsting” breached spatial temporal thresholds for 2 consecutive weeks during weeks 18 and 19 and therefore constitutes an alert according to our current definition of a geographical alert (see Table 1). This is the second alert for this “kommun” so far this year (similar alert in weeks 13 and 14).

The number of observed deaths and expected threshold is once again small (see Table 2) and as such we interpret this alert with caution at present. Further investigation into reasons for these alerts in Högsby will be undertaken. A slight increase was observed in spatial mortality activity in week 18 (see Figure 2), which correlates with the slight rise in overall mortality in this week discussed in Part I.

Table 2: Table of threshold breaches, observed # deaths and expected thresholds # deaths by Swedish “kommun” for Year = 2005, Weeks = 18 - 19  (Note only age groups with threshold breaches are shown in the table)

/Benn Sartorius