NCDSim – A Simulation Model for the Future Development of Non-Communicable Diseases
NCDSim is a simulation model developed by the Public Health Agency of Sweden, the Swedish Cancer Society, and the Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation to analyze the future development of cancer and cardiovascular diseases in Sweden. The model is based on official statistics from Statistics Sweden (SCB), the National Board of Health and Welfare, and other authorities, as well as scientific studies on risk factors and relative risks.
The model demonstrates how various preventive measures – such as those targeting smoking, unhealthy diets, or insufficient physical activity – can impact the development of diseases and costs up to the year 2120.
The model includes ten risk factors, such as high alcohol consumption, smoking, and low consumption of fruits and vegetables. The effects of these risk factors are calculated using relative risks and population attributable fractions, which show what proportion of disease cases can be attributed to these factors.
NCDSim generates annual results for the number of disease cases, deaths, and healthcare costs, broken down by gender, age, and disease. The results are presented in a web-based interface and can be exported for further analysis.
The model is built in the R programming language and features a graphical user interface in Shiny, making it user-friendly even for non-experts. Users can compare different scenarios, such as the effects of reduced prevalence of risk factors, and see how this affects the burden of disease and costs. Costs refer to direct costs for healthcare and medications, as well as indirect costs for lost productivity, based on 2024 prices.
A baseline scenario is based on SCB’s population forecast and current risk factor prevalence, but users can adjust the assumptions to explore alternative development paths.
The model has been developed to support decision-makers in assessing the possibilities of achieving health goals, such as the “Agenda 2030”, and identifying effective measures against non-communicable diseases.
Documentation and source code
FohmAnalys/ncdsim (github.com)
Technical documentation: NCDSim – A Simulation Model for the Future Development of Non-Communicable Diseases (github.com)
Further reading
