This report presents a mathematical model used to model the spread of covid-19 in the Stockholm region February to April 2020. Our results indicate that the day with the highest number of infectious individuals in the Stockholm region occurred on April 8th, when 70,500 individuals were simultaneously infectious. According to our model, approximately 26% of the population in the Stockholm region will be or have been, infected with covid-19 om May 1.

The model accounts for both reported cases, i.e. cases confirmed to be infected with covid-19, and unreported cases. To estimate the model parameters, we used a survey that showed that 2.5% of the population in the Stockholm region were infected between March 27 and April 3.

The report and its related code is intended as a tool for modellers.

Related reading: Estimates of the number of infected individuals during the covid-19 outbreak

Swedish version: Skattning av peakdag och antal infekterade i covid-19-utbrottet i Stockholms län februari-april 2020